Navigating Mid-2025 Macro Regimes: Moderated Growth Amid Rising Pressures
Balancing Resilience and Risks in a Tariff-Impacted Economy
As chief investment officer of Asset Guidance Group, LLC, I continually evaluate the US economy through the lens of our foundational primers, which emphasize the Growth, Inflation, and Liquidity (GIP) framework, yield curve dynamics, attribution analysis, and regime identification. These principles guide our assessment of current macroeconomic directions, drawing on real-time data to forecast near-term regimes with high confidence. With the latest indicators reflecting a mix of resilience and emerging headwinds, this analysis synthesizes Q1 2025 GDP contraction, June CPI uptick, stable labor markets, and elevated rates against GIP benchmarks to project the regime over the next month.
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